Early Signals Score Algorithm

Overview

The Early Signals Score (0-100) predicts future paper impact based on indicators from the first 7 days after publication.

Signal Weights

• 40% - Author metrics (h-index, institutional affiliation)
• 35% - Code implementations (GitHub repos within 72 hours)
• 20% - Social signals (Twitter mentions, Reddit discussions)
• 5% - Technical novelty (new methods, benchmarks)

Implementation Details

[To be added during Phase 2 development]

Validation Methodology

• Historical data: Papers from 2020-2022
• Success metric: Top 20% by citations after 24 months
• Baseline comparison: Random (20%), h-index only (51%)
• Target accuracy: 70%+